The Nigerian Farmers on the Frontline: Exploring How Indigenous Ecological Knowledge Enhances Early Warning Systems
By Oluwatosin Christopher.
Introduction
For generations, Nigerian farmers have relied on Indigenous Ecological Knowledge (IEK) to guide agricultural practices. This knowledge encompasses observations of natural cues — such as animal behavior, plant phenology, and atmospheric conditions — to predict weather patterns and inform farming decisions. For instance, in West Africa, indicators used to predict the dry season and harmattan include fruits drying or falling off trees, increased occurrence of termites, shedding of trees, appearance of rainbows, among others. The indicators, among others, for the onset of the rains included the flowering of trees, heavy budding of acacia tree species, dormancy breaking in certain tree/fruit species and the appearance of a large number of ants. These traditional systems have been crucial in regions with limited access to formal meteorological data, helping rural communities decide the best times for planting, harvesting, and other farming activities.
Figure 1: Nature’s Clues — Traditional Indicators of Weather and Seasonal Changes in West Africa (Dry and Rainy Seasons)
However, the reliability of IEK is increasingly challenged by the growing unpredictability of climate patterns. Erratic rainfall, extreme heat, and flooding are disrupting the indicators once considered dependable. For example, in 2024, torrential rains devastated 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states, destroying more than 1.5 million hectares of farmland and affecting over nine million people. By 2050, climate change inaction could cost Nigeria between 6%–30% of the country’s GDP, equivalent to a loss of US$100–460 billion. These developments highlight the fragility of solely relying on traditional systems and the urgent need to integrate Early Warning Systems (EWS) with IEK to bolster farmers’ adaptive capacities.
Indigenous Climate Indicators: A Time-Tested Knowledge System
Nigerian farmers, like many across sub-Saharan Africa, have traditionally relied on Indigenous Ecological Knowledge (IEK) to predict climatic conditions. This knowledge, developed over centuries, varies by region and encompasses observations of environmental cues.
In Imo State, a study assessing the relevance of indigenous knowledge on weather and climate forecasting for planning farm activities found that farmers utilize indicators such as the behavior of animals, phenological cues from trees, and atmospheric signs to anticipate rainfall patterns. These indicators are integral to their decision-making processes in agriculture.
Similarly, in Ogun State, research has documented the utilization of indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change in crop production. Farmers in this region observe environmental signs, including the behavior of animals and phenological changes in specific tree species, to predict weather patterns and make informed decisions regarding their farming activities. The research found that farmers observe environmental cues, such as the behavior of animals and phenological changes in trees like Baobab (Adansonia digitata) and Iroko (Milicia excelsa), to predict rainfall patterns. In addition, there was a statistically significant alignment between these indigenous signs and actual rainfall trends, highlighting the potential of IEK in informing early warning systems.
These studies highlight the importance of IEK in agricultural practices within these Nigerian states. The integration of such traditional knowledge with modern meteorological information can enhance climate resilience and support sustainable agriculture in the region.
Bridging Indigenous Knowledge with Modern EWS
To strengthen agricultural resilience, hybrid systems combining IEK and modern EWS are emerging as a strategic solution. In practice, this integration involves validating traditional indicators against scientific weather models and using both in localized forecasting.
Globally, successful models of IEK-EWS integration include community-based forecasting systems in Kenya, where indigenous indicators are incorporated into mobile alerts used by farmers to make planting decisions. These systems improve responsiveness and allow for more informed risk management.
In Tanzania, the integration of Indigenous Ecological Knowledge (IEK) with modern Early Warning Systems (EWS) includes initiatives like the Community-Based Armyworm Forecasting (CBAF), where trained farmer forecasters in each village operate moth traps, collect data, and make localized predictions, rapidly sharing this information through community-identified channels to prevent crop loss. In Tanga, fishermen rely on indigenous cues like dark clouds and the prevalence of Kusi (southerly winds) for short-term weather forecasting, which is now combined with modern tools, including smartphone distribution and SMS alerts, to provide timely, location-specific climate information.
Challenges in Integrating Indigenous Knowledge with EWS
Despite its proven value, the integration of IEK with EWS is not without barriers:
- Scientific Skepticism: Many experts view traditional knowledge as anecdotal and lacking empirical rigor, creating institutional resistance.
- Lack of Documentation: IEK is largely oral and intergenerational, making systematic validation difficult.
- Generational Loss: Younger generations are drifting from farming, leaving traditional wisdom underutilized or forgotten.
- Policy Gaps: There is minimal national policy recognition of IEK’s contribution to climate adaptation, hindering structured integration into formal systems.
Recommendations for Strengthening the Synergy
- Indigenous Climate Knowledge Centers: Establish regional centers to document, study, and translate IEK for integration with scientific tools.
- Cross-Disciplinary Research: Facilitate partnerships between meteorologists, social scientists, and local communities to co-produce forecasts.
- Incentivize Farmer Participation: Offer training and incentives for farmers who contribute to hybrid systems.
- Leverage Local Media: Utilize community radio, SMS, and mobile apps to disseminate hybrid forecasts in local languages.
Conclusion
Indigenous Ecological Knowledge has long served Nigerian farmers, offering culturally rooted insights into agricultural cycles. But today, it faces a crisis of relevance amidst climate chaos. As the reliability of IEK declines, integrating it with modern Early Warning Systems provides a path forward. By combining ancestral wisdom with scientific precision, Nigeria — and similar regions — can build climate-resilient food systems that are locally grounded and globally informed.
Next in This Series
Beyond Alerts: Strengthening Community-Led Climate Adaptation — Exploring strategies for empowering local communities to transition from early warnings to proactive, sustainable adaptation measures.
Author:
Oluwatosin Christopher
Deputy Head of Programmes
Environment and Climate Action Manager
Climate Smart Agriculture & Productive Use of Renewable Energy Portfolio Lead
