The Nigerian Farmers on the Frontline: Adapting Climate Change with Smart Agriculture Using Early Warning Systems.

By Oluwatosin Christopher.

Introduction

Nigeria’s agricultural sector has increasingly experienced climate stress, reflected in irregular rainfall patterns, long-lasting droughts and destructive flood events, which play against food security. The severe floods in 2022 flooded 676,000 hectares of agricultural land which resulted in serious reductions of harvest volumes and worsening conditions of food scarcity across the nation. The vital role of Early Warning Systems (EWS) emerges because agricultural, forestry and fishing activities contribute 23% to GDP (Figure 1) and the rural workforce consists of 70% of employees, but remains highly dependent on rainfall and traditional farming implements and seedlings with insufficient climate resilience.

Figure 1: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing value added as a percentage of Nigeria’s GDP (2023). (Source: World Bank, 2023)

The World Bank has boosted its support for Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), particularly Early Warning Systems (EWS), because these measures support the Paris Agreement objectives. The digital platform EWS enables farmers to receive instantaneous warnings and climatic prediction data, which helps them develop protective measures against climate shocks and improve their food protection systems.

Impact of Climate Change and the Need for Early Warning Systems

Farmers in northern Nigeria have faced unpredictable weather patterns, which have resulted in poor rainfall timing, protracted dry periods and extensive damage to their crops for more than ten years. When farmers lack valid prediction data, they face an unpredictable situation in agriculture.

The flood event in Nasarawa State underwatered 4,500 hectares of Olam rice farms, costing $15M in losses in 2023. Floods in Taraba State caused farmers to lose N30M in soursop production during that particular season.

Ensuring food security through proactive climate adaptation measures becomes vital for Nigeria, additionally because experts project the country’s population to increase to 400 million people by 2050. Through data science, EWS provides farmers with the ability to forecast risks alongside the potential of minimizing losses and maximizing their crop production.

The Role of Early Warning Systems (EWS) in Agriculture

In 2022, the United Nations introduced an “Early Warnings for All” Initiative to achieve global EWS coverage by 2027. The complete implementation of these systems, which scientists now see as vital human rights, stands as a fundamental life-saving mechanism to shield people and their economic assets from climate-related catastrophes.

EWS integrates:

• Alerts — Real-time warnings for floods, droughts, and pest outbreaks.
• Planning Support — Data-driven advice on planting, irrigation, and harvest timing.
• Risk Reduction — Helps farmers prepare financial buffers (such as crop insurance).

The climate forecasting capabilities of NiMet (Nigerian Meteorological Agency) in Nigeria remain underutilized because of limited accessibility throughout the country. The effectiveness of EWS should improve through NiMet’s expansion of outreach by digital platforms, together with local extension services.

Global Best Practices and Success Stories

Countries like Kenya and India offer successful models for Nigeria:

• Kenya’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) reduced agricultural losses by 40% through seasonal forecasting.
• India’s Agromet Advisory Services (AAS) improved farms, reaching 22 million farmers with localized weather forecasts.

Even within Nigeria, successful cases exist. In Ebonyi State, 89% of farmers accessed Climate Information Services (CIS) through radio, extension officers, and farmer networks. 88% used this data, improving resilience and yields.

This success, as shown in the table above, demonstrates how scaling CIS and EWS nationwide can boost food security and agricultural productivity.

Challenges Hindering EWS Adoption in Nigeria

Despite the apparent benefits that widespread EWS adoption would bring to Nigeria, there has been limited adoption. The key challenges hindering widespread adoption are:

1. Limited Rural Connectivity — Only 42.65% of Nigerians have access to mobile internet, restricting digital alerts.
2. Inadequate Funding — Climate adaptation budgets remain low, hindering tech adoption.
3. Low Awareness — Many farmers rely on traditional forecasting (based on atmospheric temperature as felt by the body, changes in wind direction, farming activities, the behavioural changes of some animals and birds, and phenological changes in plant species), reducing the uptake of modern EWS.
4. Weak Stakeholder Collaboration — Limited engagement between the government, private sector, and research institutions.

Key Recommendations for Strengthening EWS in Nigeria

1. The government must improve mobile network coverage while creating local weather observation stations and enhance meteorological services for better climate data transmission.

2. A public-private strategic alliance needs to develop between telecom companies and agritech organizations and insurance providers to enable better EWS data acquisition and dissemination alongside farmer insurance programs.

3. Stakeholders must then ensure that farmer knowledge spreads through SMS advisory and radio networks, agricultural field officer systems and grassroots farming organizations.

4. Link EWS database information with financial safety schemes such as insurance and other regulatory networks to protect farmers from climate-based risks.

5. The integration of indigenous weather prediction techniques with artificial intelligence and scientific data-driven forecasting methods will lead to better climate understanding, which locals will more readily accept.

6. Through international climate funding combined with national programs and donor organizations, the development of end-to-end weather systems will find the necessary sustainable financial support.

7. Domesticate sustainable agricultural practices by stimulating farmers to incorporate agroecology and conservation agriculture, which decreases climate vulnerabilities while boosting food production.

8. Farmers should implement artificial intelligence combined with data analytics and machine learning platforms to analyze climatic patterns alongside weather event predictions for improved operational decisions.

Conclusion

Success in Nigerian agricultural development requires active climate adaptation programs. Early Warning Systems operate as a financially efficient resource which protects food harvests, alongside bolstering farmer toughness with positive effects on economic stability. Nigeria can establish a weather-resistant agricultural framework by improving its technical bases while promoting farming alliances and teaching farmers about sustainable agricultural practices.